You Can Bet On It! (8/31/2017)
Welcome,
This is the first edition of the my weekly blog which will
focus on picking college football but not in the traditional sense of just
trying to pick a winner because with games like Ohio State verse Indiana well pretty
much anyone who knows anything about college football is going to pick Ohio
State to win. See what I’m going to be talking about is going to make games
that most of the general population minus current students, alumni, locals, and
football obsessed people like myself would never really care about a little
more interesting and mean quite a bit more even in a blowout. What I’m going to
be discussing is picking games in a way that is not only interesting and
exciting but extremely popular and that way is called picking against the
spread. Now when picking against the spread there are a couple of ways to pick
the winner. You can pick the team favored to win which means they will have to
win with a score at least one more point more than they were are favored to win
by or you can pick the underdog to either win outright or even lose by less
than the number of points the other teams was favored, the only other outcome
is if the game ends with the favored team winning by the exactly the points
spread which result in a push or a tie. Each week I am going to being giving a
breakdown of three games and how I would pick against the spread in these games
and the factors that lead me to my choice. I will also be giving you a fourth
game which I will call my lock of the week, which means this is the game and
spread I feel is the best pick against the spread for this week.
Before we begin we need to go over two key terms you are
going to need to know going forward.
Spread - This means the number of points a given team is
projected or favored beat another team; this number is typical dictated by Las
Vegas or book/odds makers.
Over/Under (O/U) - This is the total number of points that
the same odds makers believe is going to be scored in total when combining the
two teams competing final scores.
Keep in mind with of these two, the spread and the
over/under, either one of these can come with a ½ point which can make things a
bit interesting because if a final score is 3 ½ points you have to have the
team favored win by no less than 4 and even if the team you picked wins by 3
points this will not result in a push it will be a lose.
Now without any more delay let’s get to my picks for one of
my favorite days of the year, the start of the college football season.
UCLA vs. Texas
A&M, Pasadena CA, 7:30 pm
Spread: UCLA by 4 points
Over/Under: 56 ½ points
This game is going to be one of the better games to watch this
weekend and will feature a lot of players that we may be seeing playing on
Sunday’s very soon so I am predicting a lot of high light film plays coming out
of this game. First of all for UCLA, they are coming in with a top tier QB in
Josh Rosen which will certainly be an advantage but when you factor in both of
their two leading wide receviers from last season and an offensive line that is
filled with veterans that’s a lot of pros for the Bruins on offense. It is also
important to keep in mind UCLA has a new offensive coordinator in Jedd Fisch
who is the former offensive coordinator for Jim Harbaugh who runs a very pro
level, drop back style which will only serve to help to bring out Rosen’s
strength at QB. UCLA is also coming in with a very solid defensive line and
skilled secondary which should help to keep the pressure off of Rosen. Not to
be outdone Texas A&M has a real stud at WR in Christian Kirk who does
almost everything for the Aggies, he’s going to have to do a lot of work in
this game and he is going to be a big focus for the UCLA defense. Although I
don’t see UCLA being about to take Kirk complete out of this game, I do believe
the Aggies are going to have to lean more on their strong offensive line and
one two punch at RB with Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford. The Texas A&M
defense is where my concern lies considering as they will be without Myles
Garett and Daeshoun Hall on the defensive line as the left for the NFL draft. Now this is an important game and season for
that matter for both coach’s, ULCA’s Jim Mora Jr and Texas A&M’s Kevin
Sumlin as either could be in danger of rumors starting regarding their job
security after a loss. With that said a 4 point favorite is not much but
considering the amount of talent that UCLA has on both sides of the ball, especially
on offense, combined with Texas A&M’s questions on defense and lack of real
fire power on offense mainly at the QB position I believe ULCA will be able to cover
the spread and win by a touchdown.
UCLA: 38 Texas A&M:
31 and the Over
Boise State vs. Troy,
Boise ID, 3:45 pm
Spread: Boise St by 11 point
Over/Under: 62 ½ points
Now first of all I am going to say that I am always going to
give Boise State an advantage when they get to play at home on the smurf turf,
for those who don’t know Boise State plays on a field that has blue grass hence
the name. Boise State is always tough to beat at home and given the sun being
high in the sky at the start of the game both of those things are going to play
into the Broncos favor. That being said Boise State has a lot of questions this
season, and needs to locate the high powered, fast paced offense that they have
been known for but were lacking last season. Troy on the other hand comes in as
quite the underdog, but the reality is they are much better team than most
average college football fans would realize. Troy has most of their offensive
players returning this year; minus there two offensive tackles which is cause
for pause but they will still have their senior leader at QB in Brandon Silver.
This Troy teams should be much the same team that was able to hang in with
eventual National Champion Clemson in a 30-24 loss. Boise State is going to
need to create turnovers and find their offensive rhythm, but all in all this
game is going to come down to the run game for both teams and being able to
control the tempo of the game. I am going to go with Troy because I believe
they will keep it to within 10 and I believe in an unexpectedly low scoring
game well in the terms of these teams and college football in general.
Boise State: 38 Troy:
28 and the Under
Notre Dame vs. Temple,
Norte Dame IN, 3:30 pm
Spread: Norte Dame by 19 ½ points
Over/Under: 55 points
This is a game with a very large spread and these are often
my favorite to pay attention to, because there is always going to lots of room
for the underdog to play with, but that of course doesn’t always guarantee a
correct pick. This game is interesting to me because Norte Dame head coach
Kelly is going to need to have a very good year to quite the firing rumbles,
and should be interesting to see how Irish come out now that Chip Long with be
calling the plays. Temple on the other hand is another team that I never count
out, partly because I have been burned picking against them more times than I
would like to admit and partly because they are often put out a better team
than most people would think. That being said this Owls team has lost their
head coach and a ton of their starters and that being said this is still a Temple
team that was ranked 11th last year in turnovers. If Temple wants to
keep this a close game they are going to need the secondary to play big and
create turnovers and because of how much talent’s on the defense I still don’t
believe Notre Dame will run away with this game. It’s going to look sloppy at
times, because of that I believe that Irish will get a convincing win but not
enough to cover the spread so I am going with Temple to keep it within 19 ½ …
barely.
Notre Dame: 34 Temple:
17 and the Under
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Georgia vs.
Appalachian State, Athens GA, 6:15 pm
Spread: Georgia by 37 ½ points
Over/Under: 45 ½ points
As I mention in my last pick about Temple being one of those
teams that can burn you more often than not when you chose to pick against them…well
Appalachian State is no different if you need any more proof google their 2007
game against Michigan. Now they are going to be going up against a very good
and dangerous Georgia team who is going to be at home and have an absolute cannon
ball of a RB in Nick Chubb. That being said Georgia has a really good and often
over looked QB in Jacob Eason so the Bulldogs will have plenty of offense threats
if Appalachian State sells out to stop Chubb from literally running away with
this. Georgia is going to be very strong on the defense side of the ball as
well especially against the run coming off being the 17th rank in
the nation against it last year but Appalachian State does have a really good
offensive line and a great RB on their side of ball in Jalin Moore, which will
make this fight in the trenches the part of the game to watch. Now it’s going
to be tough for Appalachian State to really hang in this game but could if they
can set the tempo early by getting stops or take a ways on defense as Georgia
is known for slow starts to kick off the season. With all that being said I think
Georgia is going to win without too much trouble but with them being a 37 ½ point
favorite and my knowledge of Appalachian State history against good teams, on a
big stage, while being overlooked I am
going to say Appalachian State will no doubt keep it closer than the spread
predicts.
Georgia: 42
Appalachian State: 17 and the Over
So there you have it on my picks this week, now as I go
forward I am going to go more into details as far as different betting options and
ease in different ways of making picks. I will also be keeping a record of my
picks all year at the bottom of the page going forward and strongly encourage
comments, thoughts, and if you have your own picks against mine or different
games please share. At this point I would like to thank you for reading and congratulate
you for making it though another long off season.
