You Can Bet On It! (Week 1)

You Can Bet On It! (8/31/2017)

Welcome,

This is the first edition of the my weekly blog which will focus on picking college football but not in the traditional sense of just trying to pick a winner because with games like Ohio State verse Indiana well pretty much anyone who knows anything about college football is going to pick Ohio State to win. See what I’m going to be talking about is going to make games that most of the general population minus current students, alumni, locals, and football obsessed people like myself would never really care about a little more interesting and mean quite a bit more even in a blowout. What I’m going to be discussing is picking games in a way that is not only interesting and exciting but extremely popular and that way is called picking against the spread. Now when picking against the spread there are a couple of ways to pick the winner. You can pick the team favored to win which means they will have to win with a score at least one more point more than they were are favored to win by or you can pick the underdog to either win outright or even lose by less than the number of points the other teams was favored, the only other outcome is if the game ends with the favored team winning by the exactly the points spread which result in a push or a tie. Each week I am going to being giving a breakdown of three games and how I would pick against the spread in these games and the factors that lead me to my choice. I will also be giving you a fourth game which I will call my lock of the week, which means this is the game and spread I feel is the best pick against the spread for this week.

Before we begin we need to go over two key terms you are going to need to know going forward.

Spread - This means the number of points a given team is projected or favored beat another team; this number is typical dictated by Las Vegas or book/odds makers.

Over/Under (O/U) - This is the total number of points that the same odds makers believe is going to be scored in total when combining the two teams competing final scores.

Keep in mind with of these two, the spread and the over/under, either one of these can come with a ½ point which can make things a bit interesting because if a final score is 3 ½ points you have to have the team favored win by no less than 4 and even if the team you picked wins by 3 points this will not result in a push it will be a lose.

Now without any more delay let’s get to my picks for one of my favorite days of the year, the start of the college football season.

UCLA vs. Texas A&M, Pasadena CA, 7:30 pm

Spread: UCLA by 4 points

Over/Under: 56 ½ points

This game is going to be one of the better games to watch this weekend and will feature a lot of players that we may be seeing playing on Sunday’s very soon so I am predicting a lot of high light film plays coming out of this game. First of all for UCLA, they are coming in with a top tier QB in Josh Rosen which will certainly be an advantage but when you factor in both of their two leading wide receviers from last season and an offensive line that is filled with veterans that’s a lot of pros for the Bruins on offense. It is also important to keep in mind UCLA has a new offensive coordinator in Jedd Fisch who is the former offensive coordinator for Jim Harbaugh who runs a very pro level, drop back style which will only serve to help to bring out Rosen’s strength at QB. UCLA is also coming in with a very solid defensive line and skilled secondary which should help to keep the pressure off of Rosen. Not to be outdone Texas A&M has a real stud at WR in Christian Kirk who does almost everything for the Aggies, he’s going to have to do a lot of work in this game and he is going to be a big focus for the UCLA defense. Although I don’t see UCLA being about to take Kirk complete out of this game, I do believe the Aggies are going to have to lean more on their strong offensive line and one two punch at RB with Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford. The Texas A&M defense is where my concern lies considering as they will be without Myles Garett and Daeshoun Hall on the defensive line as the left for the NFL draft.  Now this is an important game and season for that matter for both coach’s, ULCA’s Jim Mora Jr and Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin as either could be in danger of rumors starting regarding their job security after a loss. With that said a 4 point favorite is not much but considering the amount of talent that UCLA has on both sides of the ball, especially on offense, combined with Texas A&M’s questions on defense and lack of real fire power on offense mainly at the QB position I believe ULCA will be able to cover the spread and win by a touchdown.

UCLA: 38 Texas A&M: 31 and the Over

Boise State vs. Troy, Boise ID, 3:45 pm

Spread: Boise St by 11 point

Over/Under: 62 ½ points

Now first of all I am going to say that I am always going to give Boise State an advantage when they get to play at home on the smurf turf, for those who don’t know Boise State plays on a field that has blue grass hence the name. Boise State is always tough to beat at home and given the sun being high in the sky at the start of the game both of those things are going to play into the Broncos favor. That being said Boise State has a lot of questions this season, and needs to locate the high powered, fast paced offense that they have been known for but were lacking last season. Troy on the other hand comes in as quite the underdog, but the reality is they are much better team than most average college football fans would realize. Troy has most of their offensive players returning this year; minus there two offensive tackles which is cause for pause but they will still have their senior leader at QB in Brandon Silver. This Troy teams should be much the same team that was able to hang in with eventual National Champion Clemson in a 30-24 loss. Boise State is going to need to create turnovers and find their offensive rhythm, but all in all this game is going to come down to the run game for both teams and being able to control the tempo of the game. I am going to go with Troy because I believe they will keep it to within 10 and I believe in an unexpectedly low scoring game well in the terms of these teams and college football in general.

Boise State: 38 Troy: 28 and the Under

Notre Dame vs. Temple, Norte Dame IN, 3:30 pm

Spread: Norte Dame by 19 ½ points

Over/Under: 55 points

This is a game with a very large spread and these are often my favorite to pay attention to, because there is always going to lots of room for the underdog to play with, but that of course doesn’t always guarantee a correct pick. This game is interesting to me because Norte Dame head coach Kelly is going to need to have a very good year to quite the firing rumbles, and should be interesting to see how Irish come out now that Chip Long with be calling the plays. Temple on the other hand is another team that I never count out, partly because I have been burned picking against them more times than I would like to admit and partly because they are often put out a better team than most people would think. That being said this Owls team has lost their head coach and a ton of their starters and that being said this is still a Temple team that was ranked 11^th last year in turnovers. If Temple wants to keep this a close game they are going to need the secondary to play big and create turnovers and because of how much talent’s on the defense I still don’t believe Notre Dame will run away with this game. It’s going to look sloppy at times, because of that I believe that Irish will get a convincing win but not enough to cover the spread so I am going with Temple to keep it within 19 ½ … barely.

Notre Dame: 34 Temple: 17 and the Under

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Georgia vs. Appalachian State, Athens GA, 6:15 pm

Spread: Georgia by 37 ½ points

Over/Under: 45 ½ points

As I mention in my last pick about Temple being one of those teams that can burn you more often than not when you chose to pick against them…well Appalachian State is no different if you need any more proof google their 2007 game against Michigan. Now they are going to be going up against a very good and dangerous Georgia team who is going to be at home and have an absolute cannon ball of a RB in Nick Chubb. That being said Georgia has a really good and often over looked QB in Jacob Eason so the Bulldogs will have plenty of offense threats if Appalachian State sells out to stop Chubb from literally running away with this. Georgia is going to be very strong on the defense side of the ball as well especially against the run coming off being the 17^th rank in the nation against it last year but Appalachian State does have a really good offensive line and a great RB on their side of ball in Jalin Moore, which will make this fight in the trenches the part of the game to watch. Now it’s going to be tough for Appalachian State to really hang in this game but could if they can set the tempo early by getting stops or take a ways on defense as Georgia is known for slow starts to kick off the season. With all that being said I think Georgia is going to win without too much trouble but with them being a 37 ½ point favorite and my knowledge of Appalachian State history against good teams, on a big stage, while being overlooked  I am going to say Appalachian State will no doubt keep it closer than the spread predicts.

Georgia: 42 Appalachian State: 17 and the Over

So there you have it on my picks this week, now as I go forward I am going to go more into details as far as different betting options and ease in different ways of making picks. I will also be keeping a record of my picks all year at the bottom of the page going forward and strongly encourage comments, thoughts, and if you have your own picks against mine or different games please share. At this point I would like to thank you for reading and congratulate you for making it though another long off season.

Football Friday: Full Time Officials

For the first time, the NFL will have full time officials. The officiating, as of late, has been very questionable. The outrage mostly started when the NFL used "replacement" refs, which led to the Seattle vs. Green Bay debacle. Since then, there has been a much requested overhaul of the officiating process. Since the Golden Tate touchdown/interception play, we have seen such issues as the Dez Bryant catch/no catch, the obvious pass interference that wasn't called in the Falcons and Seahawks regular season game, and the most egregious, failing to call any personal foul hit to the head that Cam Newton receives, or any other hit on him for that matter.

What is their answer? Hire full time referees. While this isn't a bad idea, I highly doubt this will fix ANY of the problems. Unless part of being full time is working on defining the rules, and watching where they messed up, nothing will change. After that Cowboys vs. Packers playoff game in 2015, the NFL is still questioning what a catch really is. It looked clear to me that Dez caught it. I'm not here to debate that the Cowboys should have won the game, but that the referees did not know the actual rules of the game. That is the problem. It's not about hours logged, or even pay. It's about education.

Consistency is one of the things that all sports fans look for. If the officials made bad calls consistently across the board, it would be an issue more with rules and interpretation of those rules. But that's not even consistent. The referees in some cases seem to ignore the rules that are in place, and interpret what they want the rule to be in others. Cam Newton shouldn't have to get killed for the officials to throw the flag. Because he is so big, and so athletic, they treat him differently, and that's not fair.

We don't need full time refs, we need better, more consistent refs.

Thanks for reading!

Dan Snyder

Football Friday: The Kaepernick Konundrum

In the past 12 months, no athlete has been as polarizing as Colin Kaepernick. It was just about 1 year ago where Colin Kaepernick chose not to stand for the national anthem. This sparked an outrage among many NFL "fans". Whether or not you watched football on Sundays (as if it was some kind of religion), everybody now knew who this kid who played college football at Nevada was.

Fast forward 1 year, and we are here today, still debating the Kaepernick decision to kneel. Some people see this as the ultimate disrespect, and decided to boycott the NFL. Some see Kaepernick as a type of martyr, seeing as it doesnt appear he will find gainful NFL employment any time soon. Others just think his message is noble, but that he went about it the wrong way. Regardless of the side you're on, you still have an opinion.

This post will try to keep opinion of the situation out of the discussion, and simply look at the places where Kaepernick would fit in and why. To do this, we need to find teams who have a system in place that would allow for Kaepernick to use his legs as well as his arm. History has shown that when you make him one dimensional, he appears to be as useless as a football pump in the Patriots equipment room. I have pinpointed 5 teams where I think he could have a chance to supplant the starter, and take the team to the next level.

First place we will start is Jacksonville. The Jaguars drafted Blake Bortles after a stellar career throwing the ball at UCF. As a pro, he looked decent in his first year, but has simply regressed since then. It has gotten to the point that many fans want the Jaguars to tank, despite having a great roster of players. This is where Kaepernick could step in and do the best. I believe he could take the starting job over by week 6. His offensive line in Jacksonville is good enough to allow him to run, especially off tackle and around the edge, but can also protect him long enough to get the ball to one of the Allens. I do not see Blake Bortles progressing this season, as he has not shown that he is capable of doing so. Kaep gets the starting job by week 6.

The next place where Kaepernick could take the reins is Minnesota. When Teddy Bridgewater went down with an injury on a freak accident last off season, the Vikings paid top shelf price for the bathtub gin that is Sam Bradford. The beauty of this situation for Kaep, is that the offense is already built for a mobile quarterback. He fits the system pretty much perfectly. They also have a good defense that will keep them in games in the event he struggles (which he will, almost all QB's do). The problem with this spot is, when Bridgewater comes back (if he does), then he will compete for the starting spot, and win it.

The third team is the Cleveland Browns. There is currently no clear cut QB on this team. There is Cody Kesseler, who tried his best, Brock Osweiler, and a rookie Deshone Kizer. Kaepernick could come in and have instant success (not necessarily winning games, but would be the starter). The team is coming off of one of the worst seasons in NFL history, and can only go up from there. With Kaepernick, this team goes from a 1 win team to at least 5 wins. A 4 win change is certainly worth the look.

The fourth team would be the New York Jets. The Jets, like the Browns are an absolute mess. There is no reason why he couldn't step into this offense and win the job from McCown. Bryce Petty is clearly the best QB on the team, but for some reason, they are just tossing him aside like a piece of garbage. This leaves Hackenberg, who barely gets to see the field let alone step on it, and the teacher, Professor Josh McCown. Colin Kaepernick could walk in, and start immediately, talent wise.

The fifth option, is the least desirable. That would be accepting a backup role for a bit. The Los Angeles Chargers still have Phillip Rivers, but he is getting old. He probably has 2 years left before he begins calling games for ESPN 19. If he would be willing to be patient, this team could be his after Rivers leaves, for about 5 years. I doubt he would want to do that, but LA is a great place for him. It would allow him to keep his lifestyle (hipsterish, vegan, free spirit) as LA is very similar to San Francisco in that way.

BONUS: Hamilton Tigercats. For those of you who do not know them, they are part of the Canadian Football League, which is a highly respected league, where a lot of good, and some great NFL players have come from. This location and league might not be the most prestigious, but with an 0-5 record, they can certainly use a change up there. With his talent, he could walk into the CFL and be an impact player the way Jimmer Fredette is lighting up the Chinese league in basketball.

Wherever he ends up, football or not, he will always be remembered. Time will tell how his story will end. But tonight, this story ends, as we patiently (or not so much) wait to see what happens with Colin Kaepernick.

Until next time,

Dan Snyder