You Can Bet On It (Week 5)

You Can Bet On It! (9/29/2017)

Welcome back,

So last week was not the week I expect in college football and a lot of teams really showed they are the real deal while others showed they are flashes in the pan. I feel lucky enough that I came away with a win and am just happy I didn’t pick pro games because that would I have been a disaster. Without any further delay I am going to try and see if I can correct those mistakes this weekend even though I know I am sadly getting to this blog later than I would like

Michigan State vs Iowa, Lansing MI, 7:30pm

Spread: Michigan State by 4

Over/Under: 44 points

This is one of those classic big ten battles between two teams that are often overlooked yet make the depth of talent in the big ten very obvious. Now neither team has done a lot to blow viewers mines this year but they both have been impressive. Now given that Michigan State is at home this is why I believe that they are favored in this contest even after a bad loss in East Bend last week to the Fighting Irish.  With Iowa come only seven seconds away from another huge upset at come last week against Penn State I think Iowa is clearly the better team. I am willing to take Iowa keeping it with a field goal even though I think they will win this game out right, however I don’t foresee a high scoring game so I’ll take the under as well.

Michigan State: 18 Iowa: 24

Memphis vs Central Florida, Orlando FL, 7:00pm

Spread: Central Florida by 4 ½ points

Over/Under: 69 points

Now this game is a tough on to call but it’s a game I really like and think will be an enjoyable game to watch even though I believe that most people will sleep on it. Central Florida has only played two games so far this season but was looked good and covered they spread in both, one of which last week came back to bite me. Memphis on the other had has not had the same luck although they are undefeated and this game being postponed to this later date I feel works in the Tigers favor, the only real question is how much of an advantage. Now I am going to going to take the gamble on this one and find out if it should be shame on me as I don’t know if Memphis has enough to win but I think they can so I will take them to at least keep it to a field goal and I’ll take the over it what will be a back and forth contest till the end.

Memphis: 38 Central Florida: 35

Notre Dame vs Miami (OH), South Bend IN, 5:00pm

Spread: Notre Dame by 20 ½ points

Over/Under: 53 ½ points

Let me be clear as I start, I do not have faith in either of these teams and although that should be expected from Miami of Ohio, I still don’t by the hype or belief that this is a good Fighting Irish team. With that being said Notre Dame is coming off a big win against Michigan State where they were able to cover the spread at home and Miami has struggled to beat the spread in any of their games this season with the expectation of one they actually did. Coming off the high from last week’s win and this being the 2^nd Notre Dame home game in a row and Miami of Ohio’s second road game in a row combined with if I’m being honest the separation there should be in talent I am going to go with Notre Dame to continue the momentum in South Bend before there season goes bottoms up. I will take the over as I expect Miami of Ohio will be able to score but Notre Dame will not back off wanting to keep the lead as large as they can.

Notre Dame: 42 Miami (OH): 18

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Air Force vs New Mexico, Albuquerque NM, 7:00pm

Spread: Air Force by 2 ½ points

Over/Under: 50 points

First of all Air Force has proven to be my cash cow this year and I am not going to abandon the golden goose just yet. Air Force has covered in all but their loss last week, but they still manage to stay with any team they try and face even those games that don’t look close like the Michigan game. New Mexico on the other hand has had a hard time this year against most good to decent teams they have played, and I am surprise to see they are the underdog at home which show Vegas is showing the Falcons some respect over the Lobos. I will stick with my lucky charm and take Air Force to win this out right by a touchdown and with the over/under so low I will take the over as well

Air Force: 31 New Mexico: 24

Current Record: 7-8-1

Last Week: 1-3

You Can Bet On It (Week 4)

You Can Bet On It! (9/21/2017)

Welcome back,

Well I certainly made up for the mega fumble on my pick is week one by going perfect last week, including Air Force keeping it close against Michigan, so my goal is to use the momentum. This was week is like last week another one of those weeks where you see some close games and a few that our going to have outrageous spreads because we are still just outside conference play really kicking off in college, which in my opinion is where some of the best football is to watch. With that being said I chose to go with a lot of big games this week, and most with close spreads that I may be a little unsure about but I would like to see if my picks last week were more luck or if I still have the touch against the spread. So before lady luck leaves let’s get into this week’s picks.

Georgia vs Mississippi State, Athens GA, 7:00pm

Spread: Georgia by 6 points

Over/Under: 50 points

Now this was a game I over looked when I reviewed and we talked about our preseason outlook for the SEC on our podcast and I’ll happily admit that. With that said I do love great mid season surprise when a good game appears in the schedule. But picking this game is no easy task considering both teams have cover the spread in 5 out of 6 of their games this season. This game is going to be won or lost when Georgia has the ball against that Mississippi State defense and with that how well the Bulldogs 1-2 punch at running backs can move the chains and control the clock verses the other Bulldogs being able to get the defense off the field.  With that being said and the fact that this is a conference game after all, I see this being a close game that could go either way and come down to the final possession so I am going to go with Mississippi State to cover the spread and the over.

Georgia: 31 Mississippi: 28

UCLA vs Stanford, Stanford CA ,  10:30pm

Spread: Stanford by 7 ½ points

Over/Under: 62 points

This game is another one of those games between two teams that know each other very well and it’s not hard to see why considering how close these schools are to each other. The first thing I noticed is that both of these squads have had a hard time beating the spread in their games this year going 2-4 in their combined 6 games this season. The second thing I have seen with regards to my choice is UCLA’s history of having trouble against any team that is halfway decent and consistency of having to battle or come back in the 4^th quarter. Now I know that Stanford had a hard time against USC this year but if you have seen the Trojans play this year that shouldn’t be a surprise to you. With all that being said I still believe that Stanford is the better team in this one and will take the gamble that the Carinal will cover the spread even if it’s just barley so I will take Stanford and the over.

UCLA: 30 Stanford: 38

Alabama vs Vanderbilt, Nashville TN, 3:30pm

Spread: Alabama by 18 ½

Over/Under: 43 ½ points

Okay so let’s be honest with this one right out of the gate… Alabama is just a much better team as you see by the large spread and typically that would make me want to look closer at the underdog to keep it closer than that. However Vanderbilt has not really played anyone but Kansas State this season and other than Florida State neither has Alabama, but the difference in talent in this game is just to glaring to me for a under 20 point spread. I think Alabama is going to have no problem with winning this game and being able to hold Vanderbilt’s offense off so I will take Alabama and given that the Crimson Tide has scored 41 points in their last two games I will certainly take the over.

Alabama: 45 Vanderbilt: 24

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Maryland vs Central Florida, College Park MD, 3:00pm

Spread: Maryland 3 ½ points

Over/Under: 64 points

This is a game that I would normally not want to choose for my lock of the week considering Central Florida has play 1 game this season and Maryland has played 2 so there is not much prior information to go on. With that in mind I chose this game because I love the spread, I don’t know what kind of team Central Florida is going to be this season but having watched Maryland this season they have shown that they are a much better team than most and in my opinion Las Vegas thinks. I believe that this spread would have been much higher if Central Florida had to go up against Memphis so if Vegas wants to make Maryland a 3 ½ point favorite I will gladly take advantage as I think Maryland can win this game handedly but I don’t know we will reach 64 points so I will take the under with this matchup.

Maryland: 34 Central Florida: 27

Current Record: 6-5-1

Last Week: 4-0

You Can Bet On It (Week 3)

You Can Bet On It! (9/14/2017)

Welcome back,

Yet another week in the book and although last week was not a bad week it certainly isn’t anything you want to brag about, at the very least it was 2-2 so progresses is being made. Now it’s true that most teams this early on are still filled with question marks and as the season goes on, especially as we get closer to conference play, teams will be easier to figure out. Now was this happen not only goes Vegas spreads become a lot closer but if you have been paying attention to teams throughout the year the games will get easier to pick. With all that being said this is not that week as a lot of games are going to be filled with big spreads as the big 5 conference teams are still for the most part playing much easier opponents so I can going to do my best to give 4 games I hope will turn my year around now that I have finally gotten on the right side of the board.

Kentucky vs South Carolina, Columbia SC, 3:30pm

Spread: South Carolina by 5 ½ points

Over/Under: 51points

First and foremost Kentucky is much more of a basketball school than they are with football and you if you go back and view their previous years records you will see that easily. On the other side of the ball in this matchup South Carolina has built a solid football team for many years and this year they have not given any reason to think they won’t continue to be a quality football team. Now I am going to take South Carolina in this matchup not only because history says it is a good idea but because Kentucky was not able to cover the spread in either of their first 2 games and those were against Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky and have not scored more than 27 in either of those games. South Carolina on the other hand was able to cover the spread against much better school in North Carolina State and Missouri in the last two week while scoring over 30 in both contests. With that all being said I think the over/under is going to be pretty close but I’ll take the over barley and South Carolina easily covering the spread.

South Carolina:31 Kentucky: 21

Michigan vs Air Force, Ann Arbor MI,  12:00pm

Spread: Michigan by 27 points

Over/Under: 54 points

This another one of those high spread games that are always cause for pause for most people trying to pick against the spread, however I see a big opportunity to take a gamble. Michigan is not the team they were last year with all the players the lost last year to the NFL draft and there is serious concern regarding the QB position in Ann Arbor. As for Air Force they are never going to be at the Michigan level and there is very little to go off of this season given they only played the Virginia Military Keydets and seeing as this is the first I have heard of them I am a little concerned. Now with all that being said 27 is a very large spread and Air Force always knows how to throw the ball, combined that with all of the questions on the Michigan squad I will take Air Force and the over even though I don’t believe Air Force can win this game, I do think they will cover that 27 point spread.

Michigan: 38 Air Force: 21

North Carolina vs Old Dominion, Norfolk VA, 3:30pm

Spread: North Carolina by 7

Over/Under: 57  points

For starters, yes, I do understand that this one seems a little obvious and should be by lock of the week given how small the spread is and the level of teams facing off. Well I did think about this as the game of the week however a couple of things kept me from doing that, one of which being the lack luster start North Carolina has gotten off to and their lack of being able to cover a spread so far this year. Now Old Dominion has not and is not a team any ACC team should worry about beating however the spread only being 7 points is a bit shocking considering even with Old Dominion being decent team for the level they play at. I do believe North Carolina should be able to finally find their rhythm in this game and finally get a win and it should be by more than 7, so I am going to take the Tar Heels but go with the under in a game that I feel will be lower scoring and closer than most people would think.

North Carolina: 34 Old Dominion:21

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Iowa State vs Akron, Akron OH, 12:00pm

Spread: Iowa State by 10

Over/Under: 62 ½ points

This match up is pretty obvious why I would choose it my lock of the week and that’s because to be perfectly honest Iowa State is a very good and underrated team and well Akron is not either of those things. Iowa State is coming off a tough overtime loss to in state rival in a great game against Iowa, on the other hand Akron is coming off of a blow out of Arkansas-Pine Bluff and yes that is a real school. Given the fact that Iowa has covered the spread in both of their first two games even with the loss and Akron being as well bad as they are I don’t foresee a team like Iowa State having any problem taking out last week’s frustrations on the Zips. I will take Iowa State by way more than the 10 they are favored and I will also take the over.

Iowa State: 45 Akron:27

Current Record: 2-5-1

Last Week: 2-2

You Can Bet On It! (Week 2)

You Can Bet On It! (9/7/2017)

Welcome back,

So last week did not start off well for me and my picks to say the very least, although I am not all that surprised by this given the fact that most week one picks are often a crap shoot because little is actually known about who these teams really are yet. That being said it’s not excuse to walk out of here with a 0 in the win column and that is partly my fault for not checking the most up to date lines regarding the Georgia game so I am going to count that as loss as Georgia did beat the 14 ½ point cover. But without wasting anymore time I am going to try and turn this record around real quick with 4 picks I like this week.

Notre Dame vs Georgia, South Bend IN, 7:30pm

Spread: Norte Dame by 4 points

Over/Under: 56 ½ points

Okay so I have to start out by admitting that Notre Dame was a much better looking team than I would have ever envisioned based on last year. That being said this Georgia team is nowhere close to the Temple team that Notre Dame got to face last week and this is going to be a real challenge for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame certainly showed real improvement on the offensive side of the ball with great looking quarterback play and a running attack that put up 400 plus rushing yards, this is going true test for the Georgia defensive line. The worries will not be all on the defensive side of the ball for Georgia who will have to start a true freshman in Jake Fromm who did look good when he had to come into the game last weekend. Georgia is going to need the 1-2 punch at running back to big up a large amount of the offensive load to keep the pressure off of Fromm while hoping for the defense to slow down the Irish run game. All that being said and even with the question marks I still think that Georgia should be the favorite to win this game so I certainly believe they can keep this game with in the 4 point Notre Dame is favored by and over but I feel that is going to close too.

Notre Dame: 27 Georgia: 30

Louisville vs North Carolina, Chapel Hill NC,  12:00pm

Spread: Louisville by 10 points

Over/Under: 62 ½ points

The first thing I noticed was that this game open in Las Vegas with Louisville only being a 8 point favorite and at this point the spread has increased to 10 points. Now when you see the spread move like this it means that a lot of people have been betting on Louisville and that has forced the line to move to a large spread. As for the game this is one that at the beginning of the year looked like it could be an interesting match up, however after the week 2 performances from both teams this match up looks less appealing. North Carolina has some serious questions at quarterback and had a very tough time protecting the ball, and given that they were at home against California last week yet were still blown out all add up to a lot of concern for the Tar Heels. As for Louisville they didn’t put a beating on Purdue the way that I would but they did control most of the game and seemed to have good control on both offense and defense. In this match up I think Louisville has a well round team and North Carolina has just too many questions and concerns, that and the Cardinals still have raining Heisman in Lamar Jackson, I’m going with Louisville and the under.

Louisville: 38 North Carolina: 21

Boston College vs Wake Forest, Chestnut Hill MA, 1:00pm

Spread: Boston College by 1 point

Over/Under: 46 points

This another one of those games that started the week as a pick which is a strange way of just as strange way of saying there is no favorite and just pick the winner. That being said, there has been enough movement or bets on Boston College to move the line but not by much so I’m not going to take that shift into too much consideration. As for the teams in this contest neither is overwhelmingly special or going to surprise anyone as being a contender seeing as neither team has more the 2 or 3 real stars on their rosters. Given that neither team played a really tough match up last week it is hard to go off of anything that happened last week, but a late field goal that allowed Boston College to win is a bit worrisome. These are however 2 teams that no each other very well as they both play in the ACC and this should be a close game as Vegas is already predicting. So I am going to go with my gut in this situation and my prior history against picking against Boston College at home, which is don’t! I’ll take Boston College by the 1 point and I’ll take the over in a game that could be sloppy at times.

Boston College: 27 Wake Forest: 24

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Texas vs San Jose St, Austin TX, 3:30pm

Spread: Texas by 26 points

Over/Under: 63 ½ points

Let me start off this breakdown by saying I am shocked with how many issues that Texas had last Saturday against Maryland, if you didn’t see it consider yourself lucky because even though it was close at times Texas played ugly. San Jose St on the other hand is not anything you would want to typically write home about or really write about in general but they are 1-1 on the season and the loss came at the hands of a very good Southern Florida team. Given all of the problems I witnessed last Saturday with the Longhorns and the fact that San Jose St was able to stay within 20 points of a team that is already much better than Texas I have no problem saying I believe San Jose St will be able to keep the score within 26 points even with a Texas win, although I also believe that this will be a game swings at times so I will also take the over.

Texas: 42 San Jose St: 28

Current Record: 0-3-1