You Can Bet on It! (Week 9)

You Can Bet On It! (10/26/17)

Welcome back,

So I am going to keep this short because I am not even sure if I know what I am doing with my picks this year. In all fairness I have not been scoring well in any of my pick’em league other than my top 25 against the spread. However I am hovering around 50 percent and I am going to see what I can do about getting this train wreck back on track. So without delay here is what I have to probably screw up this week seeing as college football makes no sense to me.

P.S. I would have included my Ohio State Buckeyes against Penn State but as any true fan should tell you, you should not bet on your team it usually backfires.

North Carolina State vs Norte Dame, South Bend IN, 3:30pm

Spread:  Norte Dame by 7 ½ points

Over/Under: 58 points

This game is one of the games this week to keep an eye on even though most of the college football world will be focused on Ohio State and Penn State at this time. North Carolina State is quietly positioned themselves in the top 15 with strong win against than ranked Louisville and Florida State and with doing so put themselves in control of their own ACC destiny. However Notre Dame may prove to be their toughest test to date although Clemson lays waiting for them next week. Norte Dame on the other hand has been climbing the top 25 ever sense their lose to Georgia in the second week of the year however their record seems to reflect strong play against overrated teams like USC and Michigan State at least for this football year. I’m not too worried that North Carolina State will be thinking too far ahead to next, if anything I think they will view this game a chance to sharpen their skills. Norte Dame on the other hand I feel could underestimate this team at home and after many convincing wins, I don’t know if North Carolina State will win this game but I believe that they can so I will take them and the points and go with the over to boot.

North Carolina State: 38 Norte Dame: 35

Texas vs Baylor, Waco TX, 12:00pm

Spread:  Texas by 7 ½ points

Over/Under: 57 points

Now this game is almost surely set to be the polar opposite of the game I just picked and would not worry about this game selling out or look for the TV ratings to be very high. The main reason I like this game a pick is I think the spread is lower than it should be. Baylor has done very little to impress me aside for playing West Virginia close last weekend. Now truth be told Texas has not set the world on fire this season either however they have had back to back strong and competitive games against both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State which are two very decent to strong teams this year. I will take Texas to win by at least 10 but I will take the under as Texas games this game have not set the world on fire this year by any means

Texas: 24 Baylor: 13

Wisconsin vs Illinois, Campaign IL, 12:00pm

Spread: Wisconsin by 26 points

Over/Under: 49 points

Well this going to be short and sweet because there is not much to say about this match up, but I will start with the fact that the spread in this game is over half of the total over/under. What that tells me, which I already knew, is that these teams are in no way equal. Illinois is a team to keep an eye on in years to come but it is not right now and Wisconsin is a playoff contender and needs to keep blowing teams out to impress voters and this a prime game for just that. I am taking Wisconsin because I’m not sure Illinois will even find the end zone and in case they do in garbage time or some special teams play I will take the over.

Wisconsin: 52 Illinois: 7

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Michigan State vs Northwestern, Evanston IL, 3:30pm

Spread: Michigan State by 2 ½ points

Over/Under: 40.5 points

This is a very interesting game to me even though this is not the Big Ten game I will be watching at this particular time for obvious reason if you know me. Northwestern is a team I have a hard time placing because they have had a hard go with team’s way above their skill but have also played some really good football at the same time. Michigan State on the other hand has certainly not had the easiest of schedules and seems often time plays down to the level of their opponents and rose to the level of others. The spread is less than 3 point for the road teams so it’s more like 6. I am going to say we see the Michigan State team that has allowed the team to get to a surprising 6-1 record but I see this as being a good old Big Ten slug fest so I will take the under.

Michigan State: 21 Northwestern: 13

Current Record: 14-16-2

Last Week: 1-3-0

You Can Bet On It (Week 8)

You Can Bet On It! (10/19/17)

Welcome back,

For the record the events that happened from Friday night to late Saturday night is exactly why I love college football so much and to a degree more than NFL. What a week it was in whole for college football and to be honest it was a perfect representation of this year as a whole. In case you were busy apple picking or something ridiculous like that you missed out on a crazy week of college football, some of the highly ranked schools were able to hold their own against much lesser opponents but others like #2 Clemson on Friday night, or #5 Washington on Saturday night, found out the hard way not to overlook anyone. Given the number of upsets and high profile ones at that I consider myself very lucky to get out of last week with 1 win, 2 loses and I’ll even gladly take a push on the lock of the week. Like a lot of teams this week I am more than happy to move on to the next week, so let’s see if I can make any more sense of things this week.

Navy vs Central Florida, Annapolis MD, 3:30pm

Spread: Central Florida by 8 points

Over/Under: 65 ½ points

To be clear Navy is a good football team and although I never thought they were a top 25 team which Memphis did a good enough job showing last week. Central Florida on the other hand is a team that week by week is showing they are a strong all around team putting up high numbers of offense and never giving up more than 23 to any team they have played. Vegas seems to have recognized this as well as they put the game at a 8 point spread for Central Florida on the road which I don’t much care for. Considering Central Florida can score almost at will and Navy is never going to set the score board on fire although with the high quality defense Central Florida can play I will take them to cover the spread and I’ll take the under with it.

Navy: 21 Central Florida: 42

Buffalo vs Miami-Ohio, Oxford OH, 2:30pm

Spread: Miami-Ohio by 3 points

Over/Under: 48 ½ points

Honestly I really can’t say much about either one of these teams as I have not gotten the chance to watch either of these teams’ games this year with the expectation of part of Buffalo’s 7 overtime thriller. With that being said I do know that Buffalo has a quality QB which can be the difference in any college game that and Miami-Ohio doesn’t really have quality anywhere. Buffalo has also covered the spread in all of their 7 games this season while at the same time Miami-Ohio covered once in the only game that the won this year.  The records against the spreads along with Miami-Ohio being the favorite by 3 most likely because they are at home is why I am taking Buffalo getting 3 point in a game I feel they should be able to win and I’ll take the over in this one given how low it is.

Buffalo: 35 Miami-Ohio: 28

Iowa vs Northwestern, Evanston IL, 12:00pm

Spread: Pick

Over/Under: 47 ½ points

So before I begin I do see the irony in this statement but to me this game is truly a gamble but the reason I am adding it to my picks this week is because Vegas agrees making this a pick with a lot of sports books have on or the other as a point favorite depending on where you look. As for the teams, both are solid middle of the road teams in a talent heavy Big 10, yes I know I’m biased in this regards but it’s the truth so whatever. Iowa this year was only 7 second away from beating a real contender in Penn State and only lost by a touchdown to Michigan State. Northwestern on the other hand played almost 3 perfect quarters before Penn State was able to take over the game and had a solid performance against a powerful Wisconsin team. This is really one of those games that could go either way so I am going to go with my gut and Iowa just because of how close they were able to play quality football teams this year and I will take the over considering how low it is set.

Iowa: 38 Northwestern: 35

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Oklahoma vs Kansas State, Manhattan KS, 4:00pm

Spread: Oklahoma by 12 ½ points

Over/Under: 58 ½ points

So for starters I have to say that nothing recently gives me confidence in Oklahoma which is hard for me to see as a Ohio State fan. The simple reason that I chose this game is simply because Kansas State has shown in recent weeks that they are not as good as some of us thought. Given that neither teams has been able to beat the spread in 4 weeks something has to give given the ½ point in the spread or I might have gone with the push, I personally think Oklahoma has a lot to prove and a lot of making up for lack luster play if they want to stay in consideration for the playoff.  I will take Oklahoma to win convincingly and the over because both teams will be out for blood.

Oklahoma: 45 Kansas State: 31

Current Record: 13-13-2

Last Week: 1-2-1

You Can Bet On It! (Week 7)

You Can Bet On It! (10/12/17)

Welcome back,

What difference a week can make but that is the way to college football cookie can crumble some times, and I will take the wins from last week. I’m not going to ride the wave right now because last time I did that this year it backfired on my big time, so this time I am just going to give it the college try yet again. I am happy to say that I finally was able to moved just beyond 50% thanks to a 4-0 week last week and that one push I had earlier in the year. Without dragging this out too long and wasting everyone’s time let’s see picks I’m confident in and likely to overthink this week.

Rutgers vs Illinois, Champaign IL, 3:30pm

Spread: Illinois by 2 ½ points

Over/Under: 47 ½ points

Now this is not going to be the game you want to grab the phone and call up a friend to tell them they should watch this game by any means. That being said I believe this is going to be sloppy yet entertaining toilet bowl. Neither one of these teams is decent let alone good, but the spread is what has caught by eye at first glance. Now a one or two point game is not out of question however that outcome is far less likely especially in a college game, and if I am being honest this game has the chance to go either way. I am going to go with coaching when it comes to this game and in my opinion Illinois has the better coach in Lovie Smith so I will take the Illini to cover and the under. 

Rutgers: 17 Illinois: 24

Texas Tech vs West Virginia, Morgantown WV, 12:00pm

Spread: West Virginia by 3 ½ points

Over/Under: 76 points

This game is going to be the polar opposite of the game we just went over because as mentioned in our pod cast this week the Big 12 does not play any defense. So if you were looking for a high scoring shootout this is going to be the game for you as Vegas has noted with the crazy high yet not unbelievable over/under. Now both teams are having pretty good years with Texas Tech having a slight edge in the wins department, yet even with the better record is still the underdog which I know is because they are on the road this week. With that being said I am going to go with the over because it’s the Big 12 after all but I am going to take Texas Tech to keep the game within in the 3 ½ because they have yet to lose against the spread this season and I believe they have a fighting chance to even leave Morgantown with the win.

Texas Tech: 48 West Virginia: 45

Texas Christian vs Kansas St, Manhattan KS, 7:00pm

Spread: Texas by 6 points

Over/Under: 53 points

Why leave the Big 12 when we don’t have to plus the games are usually good for a wild battle. I will say that this game is not going to quite the shootout that the game I just went over will be and I believe will be much less entertaining. The reason I believe this has everything to do with how bad Kansas St has been as of late, last week I took a weak Texas team over them and I’m not about to start believing in them now. Texas Christian is also a much better team than in state Texas and even though this is on the road I have no problem picking Texas Christian to win by more than a touchdown and well because it’s the Big 12, you guessed it the over.

Texas Christian: 35 Kansas St: 21

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Michigan vs Indiana, Bloomington IN, 12:00pm

Spread: Michigan by 7

Over/Under: 47 points

This game was the first game that stood out to be when I took a look at the spreads this week and I can understand why it is only 7 points given what happened last week to Michigan. That logic has to be what the odds makers were thinking because this spread is really low considering how bad of a team Indiana is this year. Michigan has had a bad lose and they are in mega rebuild mode after losing most of their starts but Harbaugh’s coaching and the talent difference should be enough for Michigan to rebound even on the road by more than a touchdown. The over under in this one could really go either way so I am going to say over but just barely.

Michigan: 31 Indiana: 17

Current Record: 12-11-1

Last Week: 4-0

You Can Bet On It! (Week 6)

You Can Bet On It! (10/6/17)

Welcome back,

Well I may have to re name this blog to you can bet on it but I wouldn’t the way this season has been going for me so far. I will say that I am also struggling in the yahoo random pick’em against the spread but at least there I am 47% correct there, which is more than I can say for my picks in games in this blog. That being said all this crazy football I have been privileged to see brings me so much joy, in my opinion my incorrect picks further shows how entertaining and unpredictable college football can be. With all of that being considered I am going to pray that October is a month for redemption so without further delay let’s see how I can botch up these games this week.

Central Florida vs Cincinnati, Cincinnati OH, 6:00pm

Spread: Central Florida by 17

Over/Under: 57 ½ points

So last week I must admit that I was Rip Van Winkle sleeping on Central Florida and I will have to keep that in mind for the rest of the season. Now I didn’t have much to go on with the Knights but last week against a quality Memphis team, even to my anguish, proved that this team is pretty well rounded. Cincinnati on the other hand has not done much of anything to instill confidence in them as a team, especially with back to back losses against Navy and Marshall the latter being at home is not a good look. Now typically like I said in the past 17 points is a large spread but it’s not crazy enough to scare me away, given how poorly Cincinnati has played this season and the quality defense that Central Florida has shown this year I think the spread could easily have been higher. Now bettors must agree with me seeing as this game open up at 14 points and has already risen to 17, so I am going to get while the getting is good and take Central Florida to cover early and just breeze to victory so I will take the under as well. 

Central Florida: 37 Cincinnati: 18

Michigan vs Michigan St, Ann Arbor MI, 7:30pm

Spread: Michigan by 13 ½ points

Over/Under: 40 points

This seems like it has trap game written all over it and I am least confident about this game more than any other game that I chose to pick this week, mainly because of the inconsistency of Michigan State. Now this is no doubt a rivalry game as should be obvious, however this game has a lot of questions about both sides. Michigan has so many questions from the QB position to what the identity of this defense will be considering their inconsistency. Michigan State on the other hand has played pretty much as most would expect and had a very convincing win over a strong Iowa squad after getting shown up by Norte Dame the week before. With all of this in consideration and given the almost two touchdown spread I think the rivalry, passion, and hate for each other will take the lead in this type of game. Now I won’t even try and say I know who is going to walk out with the win given the way this season has gone, but I do think this game will be close so I will take Michigan State and the over considering the low 40 points.

Michigan: 24 Michigan St: 21

Texas vs Kansas St, Austin TX, 7:00pm

Spread: Texas by 4 points

Over/Under: 50 points

To start off this selection neither one of these teams are really anything special when you really look at the quality of wins this year. That being said I do really enjoy this match up and almost chose this as my lock of the week, not that that mean all that much for me this year. Kansas State has had moments that they looked really good but have struggled in the last two games against some sub par opponents in Vanderbilt and Baylor. Texas came out really slow in a loss to Maryland but was able to get things together with a strong showing in a field goal loss to USC  and two wins against teams they should have beat including an underrated Iowa State. I think with the momentum on their side and the home town crowd in Austin I am going to take Texas to win this game by at least a touchdown and I’ll take a shot with the over. 

Texas: 31 Kansas St: 21

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Miami vs Florida State, Tallahassee FL, 3:30pm

Spread: Miami by 3 points

Over/Under: 48 ½ points

First of all I realize that this is a rivalry game the same as the battle for Michigan is, but the difference here is spread and quite frankly... talent. Not that Florida State can really do much about losing their starting QB in the first game of the season but they have done little in the way of correcting the issue among others. Florida State has yet to cover spread in any of their first three games which stands out to me; Miami on the other hand has covered in two of their three games. Now it’s worth noting that Miami hasn’t played any really tough teams this season even though I think that the Duke team they played last week is better than they showed in that performance. The reason I am taking this game as my lock of the week is because of how small the spread is which I can attribute to the rivalry, but the talent and momentum is clearly in Miami’s favor. I am going to say Miami can go on the road and get a convincing win against a depleted and confused Florida State team combined with the under on well a gamble.

Miami: 28 Florida State: 13

Current Record: 8-11-1

Last Week: 1-3