You Can Bet On It! (Week 1)

You Can Bet On It! (8/31/2017)

Welcome,

This is the first edition of the my weekly blog which will focus on picking college football but not in the traditional sense of just trying to pick a winner because with games like Ohio State verse Indiana well pretty much anyone who knows anything about college football is going to pick Ohio State to win. See what I’m going to be talking about is going to make games that most of the general population minus current students, alumni, locals, and football obsessed people like myself would never really care about a little more interesting and mean quite a bit more even in a blowout. What I’m going to be discussing is picking games in a way that is not only interesting and exciting but extremely popular and that way is called picking against the spread. Now when picking against the spread there are a couple of ways to pick the winner. You can pick the team favored to win which means they will have to win with a score at least one more point more than they were are favored to win by or you can pick the underdog to either win outright or even lose by less than the number of points the other teams was favored, the only other outcome is if the game ends with the favored team winning by the exactly the points spread which result in a push or a tie. Each week I am going to being giving a breakdown of three games and how I would pick against the spread in these games and the factors that lead me to my choice. I will also be giving you a fourth game which I will call my lock of the week, which means this is the game and spread I feel is the best pick against the spread for this week.

Before we begin we need to go over two key terms you are going to need to know going forward.

Spread - This means the number of points a given team is projected or favored beat another team; this number is typical dictated by Las Vegas or book/odds makers.

Over/Under (O/U) - This is the total number of points that the same odds makers believe is going to be scored in total when combining the two teams competing final scores.

Keep in mind with of these two, the spread and the over/under, either one of these can come with a ½ point which can make things a bit interesting because if a final score is 3 ½ points you have to have the team favored win by no less than 4 and even if the team you picked wins by 3 points this will not result in a push it will be a lose.

Now without any more delay let’s get to my picks for one of my favorite days of the year, the start of the college football season.

UCLA vs. Texas A&M, Pasadena CA, 7:30 pm

Spread: UCLA by 4 points

Over/Under: 56 ½ points

This game is going to be one of the better games to watch this weekend and will feature a lot of players that we may be seeing playing on Sunday’s very soon so I am predicting a lot of high light film plays coming out of this game. First of all for UCLA, they are coming in with a top tier QB in Josh Rosen which will certainly be an advantage but when you factor in both of their two leading wide receviers from last season and an offensive line that is filled with veterans that’s a lot of pros for the Bruins on offense. It is also important to keep in mind UCLA has a new offensive coordinator in Jedd Fisch who is the former offensive coordinator for Jim Harbaugh who runs a very pro level, drop back style which will only serve to help to bring out Rosen’s strength at QB. UCLA is also coming in with a very solid defensive line and skilled secondary which should help to keep the pressure off of Rosen. Not to be outdone Texas A&M has a real stud at WR in Christian Kirk who does almost everything for the Aggies, he’s going to have to do a lot of work in this game and he is going to be a big focus for the UCLA defense. Although I don’t see UCLA being about to take Kirk complete out of this game, I do believe the Aggies are going to have to lean more on their strong offensive line and one two punch at RB with Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford. The Texas A&M defense is where my concern lies considering as they will be without Myles Garett and Daeshoun Hall on the defensive line as the left for the NFL draft.  Now this is an important game and season for that matter for both coach’s, ULCA’s Jim Mora Jr and Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin as either could be in danger of rumors starting regarding their job security after a loss. With that said a 4 point favorite is not much but considering the amount of talent that UCLA has on both sides of the ball, especially on offense, combined with Texas A&M’s questions on defense and lack of real fire power on offense mainly at the QB position I believe ULCA will be able to cover the spread and win by a touchdown.

UCLA: 38 Texas A&M: 31 and the Over

Boise State vs. Troy, Boise ID, 3:45 pm

Spread: Boise St by 11 point

Over/Under: 62 ½ points

Now first of all I am going to say that I am always going to give Boise State an advantage when they get to play at home on the smurf turf, for those who don’t know Boise State plays on a field that has blue grass hence the name. Boise State is always tough to beat at home and given the sun being high in the sky at the start of the game both of those things are going to play into the Broncos favor. That being said Boise State has a lot of questions this season, and needs to locate the high powered, fast paced offense that they have been known for but were lacking last season. Troy on the other hand comes in as quite the underdog, but the reality is they are much better team than most average college football fans would realize. Troy has most of their offensive players returning this year; minus there two offensive tackles which is cause for pause but they will still have their senior leader at QB in Brandon Silver. This Troy teams should be much the same team that was able to hang in with eventual National Champion Clemson in a 30-24 loss. Boise State is going to need to create turnovers and find their offensive rhythm, but all in all this game is going to come down to the run game for both teams and being able to control the tempo of the game. I am going to go with Troy because I believe they will keep it to within 10 and I believe in an unexpectedly low scoring game well in the terms of these teams and college football in general.

Boise State: 38 Troy: 28 and the Under

Notre Dame vs. Temple, Norte Dame IN, 3:30 pm

Spread: Norte Dame by 19 ½ points

Over/Under: 55 points

This is a game with a very large spread and these are often my favorite to pay attention to, because there is always going to lots of room for the underdog to play with, but that of course doesn’t always guarantee a correct pick. This game is interesting to me because Norte Dame head coach Kelly is going to need to have a very good year to quite the firing rumbles, and should be interesting to see how Irish come out now that Chip Long with be calling the plays. Temple on the other hand is another team that I never count out, partly because I have been burned picking against them more times than I would like to admit and partly because they are often put out a better team than most people would think. That being said this Owls team has lost their head coach and a ton of their starters and that being said this is still a Temple team that was ranked 11^th last year in turnovers. If Temple wants to keep this a close game they are going to need the secondary to play big and create turnovers and because of how much talent’s on the defense I still don’t believe Notre Dame will run away with this game. It’s going to look sloppy at times, because of that I believe that Irish will get a convincing win but not enough to cover the spread so I am going with Temple to keep it within 19 ½ … barely.

Notre Dame: 34 Temple: 17 and the Under

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Georgia vs. Appalachian State, Athens GA, 6:15 pm

Spread: Georgia by 37 ½ points

Over/Under: 45 ½ points

As I mention in my last pick about Temple being one of those teams that can burn you more often than not when you chose to pick against them…well Appalachian State is no different if you need any more proof google their 2007 game against Michigan. Now they are going to be going up against a very good and dangerous Georgia team who is going to be at home and have an absolute cannon ball of a RB in Nick Chubb. That being said Georgia has a really good and often over looked QB in Jacob Eason so the Bulldogs will have plenty of offense threats if Appalachian State sells out to stop Chubb from literally running away with this. Georgia is going to be very strong on the defense side of the ball as well especially against the run coming off being the 17^th rank in the nation against it last year but Appalachian State does have a really good offensive line and a great RB on their side of ball in Jalin Moore, which will make this fight in the trenches the part of the game to watch. Now it’s going to be tough for Appalachian State to really hang in this game but could if they can set the tempo early by getting stops or take a ways on defense as Georgia is known for slow starts to kick off the season. With all that being said I think Georgia is going to win without too much trouble but with them being a 37 ½ point favorite and my knowledge of Appalachian State history against good teams, on a big stage, while being overlooked  I am going to say Appalachian State will no doubt keep it closer than the spread predicts.

Georgia: 42 Appalachian State: 17 and the Over

So there you have it on my picks this week, now as I go forward I am going to go more into details as far as different betting options and ease in different ways of making picks. I will also be keeping a record of my picks all year at the bottom of the page going forward and strongly encourage comments, thoughts, and if you have your own picks against mine or different games please share. At this point I would like to thank you for reading and congratulate you for making it though another long off season.